diff options
Diffstat (limited to 'src/policy')
| -rw-r--r-- | src/policy/fees.cpp | 619 | ||||
| -rw-r--r-- | src/policy/fees.h | 190 |
2 files changed, 617 insertions, 192 deletions
diff --git a/src/policy/fees.cpp b/src/policy/fees.cpp index bd169f875a..bad3de4b44 100644 --- a/src/policy/fees.cpp +++ b/src/policy/fees.cpp @@ -14,6 +14,8 @@ #include "txmempool.h" #include "util.h" +static constexpr double INF_FEERATE = 1e99; + /** * We will instantiate an instance of this class to track transactions that were * included in a block. We will lump transactions into a bucket according to their @@ -26,40 +28,43 @@ class TxConfirmStats { private: //Define the buckets we will group transactions into - std::vector<double> buckets; // The upper-bound of the range for the bucket (inclusive) - std::map<double, unsigned int> bucketMap; // Map of bucket upper-bound to index into all vectors by bucket + const std::vector<double>& buckets; // The upper-bound of the range for the bucket (inclusive) + const std::map<double, unsigned int>& bucketMap; // Map of bucket upper-bound to index into all vectors by bucket // For each bucket X: // Count the total # of txs in each bucket // Track the historical moving average of this total over blocks std::vector<double> txCtAvg; - // and calculate the total for the current block to update the moving average - std::vector<int> curBlockTxCt; // Count the total # of txs confirmed within Y blocks in each bucket // Track the historical moving average of theses totals over blocks - std::vector<std::vector<double> > confAvg; // confAvg[Y][X] - // and calculate the totals for the current block to update the moving averages - std::vector<std::vector<int> > curBlockConf; // curBlockConf[Y][X] + std::vector<std::vector<double>> confAvg; // confAvg[Y][X] + + // Track moving avg of txs which have been evicted from the mempool + // after failing to be confirmed within Y blocks + std::vector<std::vector<double>> failAvg; // failAvg[Y][X] // Sum the total feerate of all tx's in each bucket // Track the historical moving average of this total over blocks std::vector<double> avg; - // and calculate the total for the current block to update the moving average - std::vector<double> curBlockVal; // Combine the conf counts with tx counts to calculate the confirmation % for each Y,X // Combine the total value with the tx counts to calculate the avg feerate per bucket double decay; + // Resolution (# of blocks) with which confirmations are tracked + unsigned int scale; + // Mempool counts of outstanding transactions // For each bucket X, track the number of transactions in the mempool // that are unconfirmed for each possible confirmation value Y std::vector<std::vector<int> > unconfTxs; //unconfTxs[Y][X] - // transactions still unconfirmed after MAX_CONFIRMS for each bucket + // transactions still unconfirmed after GetMaxConfirms for each bucket std::vector<int> oldUnconfTxs; + void resizeInMemoryCounters(size_t newbuckets); + public: /** * Create new TxConfirmStats. This is called by BlockPolicyEstimator's @@ -68,9 +73,10 @@ public: * @param maxConfirms max number of confirms to track * @param decay how much to decay the historical moving average per block */ - TxConfirmStats(const std::vector<double>& defaultBuckets, unsigned int maxConfirms, double decay); + TxConfirmStats(const std::vector<double>& defaultBuckets, const std::map<double, unsigned int>& defaultBucketMap, + unsigned int maxPeriods, double decay, unsigned int scale); - /** Clear the state of the curBlock variables to start counting for the new block */ + /** Roll the circular buffer for unconfirmed txs*/ void ClearCurrent(unsigned int nBlockHeight); /** @@ -86,7 +92,7 @@ public: /** Remove a transaction from mempool tracking stats*/ void removeTx(unsigned int entryHeight, unsigned int nBestSeenHeight, - unsigned int bucketIndex); + unsigned int bucketIndex, bool inBlock); /** Update our estimates by decaying our historical moving average and updating with the data gathered from the current block */ @@ -104,10 +110,11 @@ public: * @param nBlockHeight the current block height */ double EstimateMedianVal(int confTarget, double sufficientTxVal, - double minSuccess, bool requireGreater, unsigned int nBlockHeight) const; + double minSuccess, bool requireGreater, unsigned int nBlockHeight, + EstimationResult *result = nullptr) const; /** Return the max number of confirms we're tracking */ - unsigned int GetMaxConfirms() const { return confAvg.size(); } + unsigned int GetMaxConfirms() const { return scale * confAvg.size(); } /** Write state of estimation data to a file*/ void Write(CAutoFile& fileout) const; @@ -116,44 +123,47 @@ public: * Read saved state of estimation data from a file and replace all internal data structures and * variables with this state. */ - void Read(CAutoFile& filein); + void Read(CAutoFile& filein, int nFileVersion, size_t numBuckets); }; TxConfirmStats::TxConfirmStats(const std::vector<double>& defaultBuckets, - unsigned int maxConfirms, double _decay) + const std::map<double, unsigned int>& defaultBucketMap, + unsigned int maxPeriods, double _decay, unsigned int _scale) + : buckets(defaultBuckets), bucketMap(defaultBucketMap) { decay = _decay; - for (unsigned int i = 0; i < defaultBuckets.size(); i++) { - buckets.push_back(defaultBuckets[i]); - bucketMap[defaultBuckets[i]] = i; - } - confAvg.resize(maxConfirms); - curBlockConf.resize(maxConfirms); - unconfTxs.resize(maxConfirms); - for (unsigned int i = 0; i < maxConfirms; i++) { + scale = _scale; + confAvg.resize(maxPeriods); + for (unsigned int i = 0; i < maxPeriods; i++) { confAvg[i].resize(buckets.size()); - curBlockConf[i].resize(buckets.size()); - unconfTxs[i].resize(buckets.size()); + } + failAvg.resize(maxPeriods); + for (unsigned int i = 0; i < maxPeriods; i++) { + failAvg[i].resize(buckets.size()); } - oldUnconfTxs.resize(buckets.size()); - curBlockTxCt.resize(buckets.size()); txCtAvg.resize(buckets.size()); - curBlockVal.resize(buckets.size()); avg.resize(buckets.size()); + + resizeInMemoryCounters(buckets.size()); } -// Zero out the data for the current block +void TxConfirmStats::resizeInMemoryCounters(size_t newbuckets) { + // newbuckets must be passed in because the buckets referred to during Read have not been updated yet. + unconfTxs.resize(GetMaxConfirms()); + for (unsigned int i = 0; i < unconfTxs.size(); i++) { + unconfTxs[i].resize(newbuckets); + } + oldUnconfTxs.resize(newbuckets); +} + +// Roll the unconfirmed txs circular buffer void TxConfirmStats::ClearCurrent(unsigned int nBlockHeight) { for (unsigned int j = 0; j < buckets.size(); j++) { oldUnconfTxs[j] += unconfTxs[nBlockHeight%unconfTxs.size()][j]; unconfTxs[nBlockHeight%unconfTxs.size()][j] = 0; - for (unsigned int i = 0; i < curBlockConf.size(); i++) - curBlockConf[i][j] = 0; - curBlockTxCt[j] = 0; - curBlockVal[j] = 0; } } @@ -163,33 +173,38 @@ void TxConfirmStats::Record(int blocksToConfirm, double val) // blocksToConfirm is 1-based if (blocksToConfirm < 1) return; + int periodsToConfirm = (blocksToConfirm + scale - 1)/scale; unsigned int bucketindex = bucketMap.lower_bound(val)->second; - for (size_t i = blocksToConfirm; i <= curBlockConf.size(); i++) { - curBlockConf[i - 1][bucketindex]++; + for (size_t i = periodsToConfirm; i <= confAvg.size(); i++) { + confAvg[i - 1][bucketindex]++; } - curBlockTxCt[bucketindex]++; - curBlockVal[bucketindex] += val; + txCtAvg[bucketindex]++; + avg[bucketindex] += val; } void TxConfirmStats::UpdateMovingAverages() { for (unsigned int j = 0; j < buckets.size(); j++) { for (unsigned int i = 0; i < confAvg.size(); i++) - confAvg[i][j] = confAvg[i][j] * decay + curBlockConf[i][j]; - avg[j] = avg[j] * decay + curBlockVal[j]; - txCtAvg[j] = txCtAvg[j] * decay + curBlockTxCt[j]; + confAvg[i][j] = confAvg[i][j] * decay; + for (unsigned int i = 0; i < failAvg.size(); i++) + failAvg[i][j] = failAvg[i][j] * decay; + avg[j] = avg[j] * decay; + txCtAvg[j] = txCtAvg[j] * decay; } } // returns -1 on error conditions double TxConfirmStats::EstimateMedianVal(int confTarget, double sufficientTxVal, double successBreakPoint, bool requireGreater, - unsigned int nBlockHeight) const + unsigned int nBlockHeight, EstimationResult *result) const { // Counters for a bucket (or range of buckets) double nConf = 0; // Number of tx's confirmed within the confTarget double totalNum = 0; // Total number of tx's that were ever confirmed int extraNum = 0; // Number of tx's still in mempool for confTarget or longer + double failNum = 0; // Number of tx's that were never confirmed but removed from the mempool after confTarget + int periodTarget = (confTarget + scale - 1)/scale; int maxbucketindex = buckets.size() - 1; @@ -212,12 +227,21 @@ double TxConfirmStats::EstimateMedianVal(int confTarget, double sufficientTxVal, bool foundAnswer = false; unsigned int bins = unconfTxs.size(); + bool newBucketRange = true; + bool passing = true; + EstimatorBucket passBucket; + EstimatorBucket failBucket; // Start counting from highest(default) or lowest feerate transactions for (int bucket = startbucket; bucket >= 0 && bucket <= maxbucketindex; bucket += step) { + if (newBucketRange) { + curNearBucket = bucket; + newBucketRange = false; + } curFarBucket = bucket; - nConf += confAvg[confTarget - 1][bucket]; + nConf += confAvg[periodTarget - 1][bucket]; totalNum += txCtAvg[bucket]; + failNum += failAvg[periodTarget - 1][bucket]; for (unsigned int confct = confTarget; confct < GetMaxConfirms(); confct++) extraNum += unconfTxs[(nBlockHeight - confct)%bins][bucket]; extraNum += oldUnconfTxs[bucket]; @@ -226,24 +250,41 @@ double TxConfirmStats::EstimateMedianVal(int confTarget, double sufficientTxVal, // (Only count the confirmed data points, so that each confirmation count // will be looking at the same amount of data and same bucket breaks) if (totalNum >= sufficientTxVal / (1 - decay)) { - double curPct = nConf / (totalNum + extraNum); + double curPct = nConf / (totalNum + failNum + extraNum); // Check to see if we are no longer getting confirmed at the success rate - if (requireGreater && curPct < successBreakPoint) - break; - if (!requireGreater && curPct > successBreakPoint) - break; - + if ((requireGreater && curPct < successBreakPoint) || (!requireGreater && curPct > successBreakPoint)) { + if (passing == true) { + // First time we hit a failure record the failed bucket + unsigned int failMinBucket = std::min(curNearBucket, curFarBucket); + unsigned int failMaxBucket = std::max(curNearBucket, curFarBucket); + failBucket.start = failMinBucket ? buckets[failMinBucket - 1] : 0; + failBucket.end = buckets[failMaxBucket]; + failBucket.withinTarget = nConf; + failBucket.totalConfirmed = totalNum; + failBucket.inMempool = extraNum; + failBucket.leftMempool = failNum; + passing = false; + } + continue; + } // Otherwise update the cumulative stats, and the bucket variables // and reset the counters else { + failBucket = EstimatorBucket(); // Reset any failed bucket, currently passing foundAnswer = true; + passing = true; + passBucket.withinTarget = nConf; nConf = 0; + passBucket.totalConfirmed = totalNum; totalNum = 0; + passBucket.inMempool = extraNum; + passBucket.leftMempool = failNum; + failNum = 0; extraNum = 0; bestNearBucket = curNearBucket; bestFarBucket = curFarBucket; - curNearBucket = bucket + step; + newBucketRange = true; } } } @@ -255,8 +296,8 @@ double TxConfirmStats::EstimateMedianVal(int confTarget, double sufficientTxVal, // Find the bucket with the median transaction and then report the average feerate from that bucket // This is a compromise between finding the median which we can't since we don't save all tx's // and reporting the average which is less accurate - unsigned int minBucket = bestNearBucket < bestFarBucket ? bestNearBucket : bestFarBucket; - unsigned int maxBucket = bestNearBucket > bestFarBucket ? bestNearBucket : bestFarBucket; + unsigned int minBucket = std::min(bestNearBucket, bestFarBucket); + unsigned int maxBucket = std::max(bestNearBucket, bestFarBucket); for (unsigned int j = minBucket; j <= maxBucket; j++) { txSum += txCtAvg[j]; } @@ -270,83 +311,109 @@ double TxConfirmStats::EstimateMedianVal(int confTarget, double sufficientTxVal, break; } } + + passBucket.start = minBucket ? buckets[minBucket-1] : 0; + passBucket.end = buckets[maxBucket]; } - LogPrint(BCLog::ESTIMATEFEE, "%3d: For conf success %s %4.2f need feerate %s: %12.5g from buckets %8g - %8g Cur Bucket stats %6.2f%% %8.1f/(%.1f+%d mempool)\n", - confTarget, requireGreater ? ">" : "<", successBreakPoint, - requireGreater ? ">" : "<", median, buckets[minBucket], buckets[maxBucket], - 100 * nConf / (totalNum + extraNum), nConf, totalNum, extraNum); + // If we were passing until we reached last few buckets with insufficient data, then report those as failed + if (passing && !newBucketRange) { + unsigned int failMinBucket = std::min(curNearBucket, curFarBucket); + unsigned int failMaxBucket = std::max(curNearBucket, curFarBucket); + failBucket.start = failMinBucket ? buckets[failMinBucket - 1] : 0; + failBucket.end = buckets[failMaxBucket]; + failBucket.withinTarget = nConf; + failBucket.totalConfirmed = totalNum; + failBucket.inMempool = extraNum; + failBucket.leftMempool = failNum; + } + LogPrint(BCLog::ESTIMATEFEE, "FeeEst: %d %s%.0f%% decay %.5f: feerate: %g from (%g - %g) %.2f%% %.1f/(%.1f %d mem %.1f out) Fail: (%g - %g) %.2f%% %.1f/(%.1f %d mem %.1f out)\n", + confTarget, requireGreater ? ">" : "<", 100.0 * successBreakPoint, decay, + median, passBucket.start, passBucket.end, + 100 * passBucket.withinTarget / (passBucket.totalConfirmed + passBucket.inMempool + passBucket.leftMempool), + passBucket.withinTarget, passBucket.totalConfirmed, passBucket.inMempool, passBucket.leftMempool, + failBucket.start, failBucket.end, + 100 * failBucket.withinTarget / (failBucket.totalConfirmed + failBucket.inMempool + failBucket.leftMempool), + failBucket.withinTarget, failBucket.totalConfirmed, failBucket.inMempool, failBucket.leftMempool); + + + if (result) { + result->pass = passBucket; + result->fail = failBucket; + result->decay = decay; + result->scale = scale; + } return median; } void TxConfirmStats::Write(CAutoFile& fileout) const { fileout << decay; - fileout << buckets; + fileout << scale; fileout << avg; fileout << txCtAvg; fileout << confAvg; + fileout << failAvg; } -void TxConfirmStats::Read(CAutoFile& filein) +void TxConfirmStats::Read(CAutoFile& filein, int nFileVersion, size_t numBuckets) { - // Read data file into temporary variables and do some very basic sanity checking - std::vector<double> fileBuckets; - std::vector<double> fileAvg; - std::vector<std::vector<double> > fileConfAvg; - std::vector<double> fileTxCtAvg; - double fileDecay; - size_t maxConfirms; - size_t numBuckets; - - filein >> fileDecay; - if (fileDecay <= 0 || fileDecay >= 1) - throw std::runtime_error("Corrupt estimates file. Decay must be between 0 and 1 (non-inclusive)"); - filein >> fileBuckets; - numBuckets = fileBuckets.size(); - if (numBuckets <= 1 || numBuckets > 1000) - throw std::runtime_error("Corrupt estimates file. Must have between 2 and 1000 feerate buckets"); - filein >> fileAvg; - if (fileAvg.size() != numBuckets) + // Read data file and do some very basic sanity checking + // buckets and bucketMap are not updated yet, so don't access them + // If there is a read failure, we'll just discard this entire object anyway + size_t maxConfirms, maxPeriods; + + // The current version will store the decay with each individual TxConfirmStats and also keep a scale factor + if (nFileVersion >= 149900) { + filein >> decay; + if (decay <= 0 || decay >= 1) { + throw std::runtime_error("Corrupt estimates file. Decay must be between 0 and 1 (non-inclusive)"); + } + filein >> scale; + } + + filein >> avg; + if (avg.size() != numBuckets) { throw std::runtime_error("Corrupt estimates file. Mismatch in feerate average bucket count"); - filein >> fileTxCtAvg; - if (fileTxCtAvg.size() != numBuckets) + } + filein >> txCtAvg; + if (txCtAvg.size() != numBuckets) { throw std::runtime_error("Corrupt estimates file. Mismatch in tx count bucket count"); - filein >> fileConfAvg; - maxConfirms = fileConfAvg.size(); - if (maxConfirms <= 0 || maxConfirms > 6 * 24 * 7) // one week - throw std::runtime_error("Corrupt estimates file. Must maintain estimates for between 1 and 1008 (one week) confirms"); - for (unsigned int i = 0; i < maxConfirms; i++) { - if (fileConfAvg[i].size() != numBuckets) - throw std::runtime_error("Corrupt estimates file. Mismatch in feerate conf average bucket count"); } - // Now that we've processed the entire feerate estimate data file and not - // thrown any errors, we can copy it to our data structures - decay = fileDecay; - buckets = fileBuckets; - avg = fileAvg; - confAvg = fileConfAvg; - txCtAvg = fileTxCtAvg; - bucketMap.clear(); + filein >> confAvg; + maxPeriods = confAvg.size(); + maxConfirms = scale * maxPeriods; - // Resize the current block variables which aren't stored in the data file - // to match the number of confirms and buckets - curBlockConf.resize(maxConfirms); - for (unsigned int i = 0; i < maxConfirms; i++) { - curBlockConf[i].resize(buckets.size()); + if (maxConfirms <= 0 || maxConfirms > 6 * 24 * 7) { // one week + throw std::runtime_error("Corrupt estimates file. Must maintain estimates for between 1 and 1008 (one week) confirms"); + } + for (unsigned int i = 0; i < maxPeriods; i++) { + if (confAvg[i].size() != numBuckets) { + throw std::runtime_error("Corrupt estimates file. Mismatch in feerate conf average bucket count"); + } } - curBlockTxCt.resize(buckets.size()); - curBlockVal.resize(buckets.size()); - unconfTxs.resize(maxConfirms); - for (unsigned int i = 0; i < maxConfirms; i++) { - unconfTxs[i].resize(buckets.size()); + if (nFileVersion >= 149900) { + filein >> failAvg; + if (maxPeriods != failAvg.size()) { + throw std::runtime_error("Corrupt estimates file. Mismatch in confirms tracked for failures"); + } + for (unsigned int i = 0; i < maxPeriods; i++) { + if (failAvg[i].size() != numBuckets) { + throw std::runtime_error("Corrupt estimates file. Mismatch in one of failure average bucket counts"); + } + } + } else { + failAvg.resize(confAvg.size()); + for (unsigned int i = 0; i < failAvg.size(); i++) { + failAvg[i].resize(numBuckets); + } } - oldUnconfTxs.resize(buckets.size()); - for (unsigned int i = 0; i < buckets.size(); i++) - bucketMap[buckets[i]] = i; + // Resize the current block variables which aren't stored in the data file + // to match the number of confirms and buckets + resizeInMemoryCounters(numBuckets); LogPrint(BCLog::ESTIMATEFEE, "Reading estimates: %u buckets counting confirms up to %u blocks\n", numBuckets, maxConfirms); @@ -360,7 +427,7 @@ unsigned int TxConfirmStats::NewTx(unsigned int nBlockHeight, double val) return bucketindex; } -void TxConfirmStats::removeTx(unsigned int entryHeight, unsigned int nBestSeenHeight, unsigned int bucketindex) +void TxConfirmStats::removeTx(unsigned int entryHeight, unsigned int nBestSeenHeight, unsigned int bucketindex, bool inBlock) { //nBestSeenHeight is not updated yet for the new block int blocksAgo = nBestSeenHeight - entryHeight; @@ -388,6 +455,12 @@ void TxConfirmStats::removeTx(unsigned int entryHeight, unsigned int nBestSeenHe blockIndex, bucketindex); } } + if (!inBlock && (unsigned int)blocksAgo >= scale) { // Only counts as a failure if not confirmed for entire period + unsigned int periodsAgo = blocksAgo / scale; + for (size_t i = 0; i < periodsAgo && i < failAvg.size(); i++) { + failAvg[i][bucketindex]++; + } + } } // This function is called from CTxMemPool::removeUnchecked to ensure @@ -395,12 +468,14 @@ void TxConfirmStats::removeTx(unsigned int entryHeight, unsigned int nBestSeenHe // tracked. Txs that were part of a block have already been removed in // processBlockTx to ensure they are never double tracked, but it is // of no harm to try to remove them again. -bool CBlockPolicyEstimator::removeTx(uint256 hash) +bool CBlockPolicyEstimator::removeTx(uint256 hash, bool inBlock) { LOCK(cs_feeEstimator); std::map<uint256, TxStatsInfo>::iterator pos = mapMemPoolTxs.find(hash); if (pos != mapMemPoolTxs.end()) { - feeStats->removeTx(pos->second.blockHeight, nBestSeenHeight, pos->second.bucketIndex); + feeStats->removeTx(pos->second.blockHeight, nBestSeenHeight, pos->second.bucketIndex, inBlock); + shortStats->removeTx(pos->second.blockHeight, nBestSeenHeight, pos->second.bucketIndex, inBlock); + longStats->removeTx(pos->second.blockHeight, nBestSeenHeight, pos->second.bucketIndex, inBlock); mapMemPoolTxs.erase(hash); return true; } else { @@ -409,21 +484,28 @@ bool CBlockPolicyEstimator::removeTx(uint256 hash) } CBlockPolicyEstimator::CBlockPolicyEstimator() - : nBestSeenHeight(0), trackedTxs(0), untrackedTxs(0) + : nBestSeenHeight(0), firstRecordedHeight(0), historicalFirst(0), historicalBest(0), trackedTxs(0), untrackedTxs(0) { static_assert(MIN_BUCKET_FEERATE > 0, "Min feerate must be nonzero"); - minTrackedFee = CFeeRate(MIN_BUCKET_FEERATE); - std::vector<double> vfeelist; - for (double bucketBoundary = minTrackedFee.GetFeePerK(); bucketBoundary <= MAX_BUCKET_FEERATE; bucketBoundary *= FEE_SPACING) { - vfeelist.push_back(bucketBoundary); + size_t bucketIndex = 0; + for (double bucketBoundary = MIN_BUCKET_FEERATE; bucketBoundary <= MAX_BUCKET_FEERATE; bucketBoundary *= FEE_SPACING, bucketIndex++) { + buckets.push_back(bucketBoundary); + bucketMap[bucketBoundary] = bucketIndex; } - vfeelist.push_back(INF_FEERATE); - feeStats = new TxConfirmStats(vfeelist, MAX_BLOCK_CONFIRMS, DEFAULT_DECAY); + buckets.push_back(INF_FEERATE); + bucketMap[INF_FEERATE] = bucketIndex; + assert(bucketMap.size() == buckets.size()); + + feeStats = new TxConfirmStats(buckets, bucketMap, MED_BLOCK_PERIODS, MED_DECAY, MED_SCALE); + shortStats = new TxConfirmStats(buckets, bucketMap, SHORT_BLOCK_PERIODS, SHORT_DECAY, SHORT_SCALE); + longStats = new TxConfirmStats(buckets, bucketMap, LONG_BLOCK_PERIODS, LONG_DECAY, LONG_SCALE); } CBlockPolicyEstimator::~CBlockPolicyEstimator() { delete feeStats; + delete shortStats; + delete longStats; } void CBlockPolicyEstimator::processTransaction(const CTxMemPoolEntry& entry, bool validFeeEstimate) @@ -457,12 +539,17 @@ void CBlockPolicyEstimator::processTransaction(const CTxMemPoolEntry& entry, boo CFeeRate feeRate(entry.GetFee(), entry.GetTxSize()); mapMemPoolTxs[hash].blockHeight = txHeight; - mapMemPoolTxs[hash].bucketIndex = feeStats->NewTx(txHeight, (double)feeRate.GetFeePerK()); + unsigned int bucketIndex = feeStats->NewTx(txHeight, (double)feeRate.GetFeePerK()); + mapMemPoolTxs[hash].bucketIndex = bucketIndex; + unsigned int bucketIndex2 = shortStats->NewTx(txHeight, (double)feeRate.GetFeePerK()); + assert(bucketIndex == bucketIndex2); + unsigned int bucketIndex3 = longStats->NewTx(txHeight, (double)feeRate.GetFeePerK()); + assert(bucketIndex == bucketIndex3); } bool CBlockPolicyEstimator::processBlockTx(unsigned int nBlockHeight, const CTxMemPoolEntry* entry) { - if (!removeTx(entry->GetTx().GetHash())) { + if (!removeTx(entry->GetTx().GetHash(), true)) { // This transaction wasn't being tracked for fee estimation return false; } @@ -482,6 +569,8 @@ bool CBlockPolicyEstimator::processBlockTx(unsigned int nBlockHeight, const CTxM CFeeRate feeRate(entry->GetFee(), entry->GetTxSize()); feeStats->Record(blocksToConfirm, (double)feeRate.GetFeePerK()); + shortStats->Record(blocksToConfirm, (double)feeRate.GetFeePerK()); + longStats->Record(blocksToConfirm, (double)feeRate.GetFeePerK()); return true; } @@ -503,21 +592,32 @@ void CBlockPolicyEstimator::processBlock(unsigned int nBlockHeight, // of unconfirmed txs to remove from tracking. nBestSeenHeight = nBlockHeight; - // Clear the current block state and update unconfirmed circular buffer + // Update unconfirmed circular buffer feeStats->ClearCurrent(nBlockHeight); + shortStats->ClearCurrent(nBlockHeight); + longStats->ClearCurrent(nBlockHeight); + + // Decay all exponential averages + feeStats->UpdateMovingAverages(); + shortStats->UpdateMovingAverages(); + longStats->UpdateMovingAverages(); unsigned int countedTxs = 0; - // Repopulate the current block states + // Update averages with data points from current block for (unsigned int i = 0; i < entries.size(); i++) { if (processBlockTx(nBlockHeight, entries[i])) countedTxs++; } - // Update all exponential averages with the current block state - feeStats->UpdateMovingAverages(); + if (firstRecordedHeight == 0 && countedTxs > 0) { + firstRecordedHeight = nBestSeenHeight; + LogPrint(BCLog::ESTIMATEFEE, "Blockpolicy first recorded height %u\n", firstRecordedHeight); + } + - LogPrint(BCLog::ESTIMATEFEE, "Blockpolicy after updating estimates for %u of %u txs in block, since last block %u of %u tracked, new mempool map size %u\n", - countedTxs, entries.size(), trackedTxs, trackedTxs + untrackedTxs, mapMemPoolTxs.size()); + LogPrint(BCLog::ESTIMATEFEE, "Blockpolicy estimates updated by %u of %u block txs, since last block %u of %u tracked, mempool map size %u, max target %u from %s\n", + countedTxs, entries.size(), trackedTxs, trackedTxs + untrackedTxs, mapMemPoolTxs.size(), + MaxUsableEstimate(), HistoricalBlockSpan() > BlockSpan() ? "historical" : "current"); trackedTxs = 0; untrackedTxs = 0; @@ -525,13 +625,44 @@ void CBlockPolicyEstimator::processBlock(unsigned int nBlockHeight, CFeeRate CBlockPolicyEstimator::estimateFee(int confTarget) const { + // It's not possible to get reasonable estimates for confTarget of 1 + if (confTarget <= 1) + return CFeeRate(0); + + return estimateRawFee(confTarget, DOUBLE_SUCCESS_PCT, FeeEstimateHorizon::MED_HALFLIFE); +} + +CFeeRate CBlockPolicyEstimator::estimateRawFee(int confTarget, double successThreshold, FeeEstimateHorizon horizon, EstimationResult* result) const +{ + TxConfirmStats* stats; + double sufficientTxs = SUFFICIENT_FEETXS; + switch (horizon) { + case FeeEstimateHorizon::SHORT_HALFLIFE: { + stats = shortStats; + sufficientTxs = SUFFICIENT_TXS_SHORT; + break; + } + case FeeEstimateHorizon::MED_HALFLIFE: { + stats = feeStats; + break; + } + case FeeEstimateHorizon::LONG_HALFLIFE: { + stats = longStats; + break; + } + default: { + return CFeeRate(0); + } + } + LOCK(cs_feeEstimator); // Return failure if trying to analyze a target we're not tracking - // It's not possible to get reasonable estimates for confTarget of 1 - if (confTarget <= 1 || (unsigned int)confTarget > feeStats->GetMaxConfirms()) + if (confTarget <= 0 || (unsigned int)confTarget > stats->GetMaxConfirms()) + return CFeeRate(0); + if (successThreshold > 1) return CFeeRate(0); - double median = feeStats->EstimateMedianVal(confTarget, SUFFICIENT_FEETXS, MIN_SUCCESS_PCT, true, nBestSeenHeight); + double median = stats->EstimateMedianVal(confTarget, sufficientTxs, successThreshold, true, nBestSeenHeight, result); if (median < 0) return CFeeRate(0); @@ -539,31 +670,148 @@ CFeeRate CBlockPolicyEstimator::estimateFee(int confTarget) const return CFeeRate(median); } -CFeeRate CBlockPolicyEstimator::estimateSmartFee(int confTarget, int *answerFoundAtTarget, const CTxMemPool& pool) const +unsigned int CBlockPolicyEstimator::BlockSpan() const +{ + if (firstRecordedHeight == 0) return 0; + assert(nBestSeenHeight >= firstRecordedHeight); + + return nBestSeenHeight - firstRecordedHeight; +} + +unsigned int CBlockPolicyEstimator::HistoricalBlockSpan() const +{ + if (historicalFirst == 0) return 0; + assert(historicalBest >= historicalFirst); + + if (nBestSeenHeight - historicalBest > OLDEST_ESTIMATE_HISTORY) return 0; + + return historicalBest - historicalFirst; +} + +unsigned int CBlockPolicyEstimator::MaxUsableEstimate() const +{ + // Block spans are divided by 2 to make sure there are enough potential failing data points for the estimate + return std::min(longStats->GetMaxConfirms(), std::max(BlockSpan(), HistoricalBlockSpan()) / 2); +} + +/** Return a fee estimate at the required successThreshold from the shortest + * time horizon which tracks confirmations up to the desired target. If + * checkShorterHorizon is requested, also allow short time horizon estimates + * for a lower target to reduce the given answer */ +double CBlockPolicyEstimator::estimateCombinedFee(unsigned int confTarget, double successThreshold, bool checkShorterHorizon) const +{ + double estimate = -1; + if (confTarget >= 1 && confTarget <= longStats->GetMaxConfirms()) { + // Find estimate from shortest time horizon possible + if (confTarget <= shortStats->GetMaxConfirms()) { // short horizon + estimate = shortStats->EstimateMedianVal(confTarget, SUFFICIENT_TXS_SHORT, successThreshold, true, nBestSeenHeight); + } + else if (confTarget <= feeStats->GetMaxConfirms()) { // medium horizon + estimate = feeStats->EstimateMedianVal(confTarget, SUFFICIENT_FEETXS, successThreshold, true, nBestSeenHeight); + } + else { // long horizon + estimate = longStats->EstimateMedianVal(confTarget, SUFFICIENT_FEETXS, successThreshold, true, nBestSeenHeight); + } + if (checkShorterHorizon) { + // If a lower confTarget from a more recent horizon returns a lower answer use it. + if (confTarget > feeStats->GetMaxConfirms()) { + double medMax = feeStats->EstimateMedianVal(feeStats->GetMaxConfirms(), SUFFICIENT_FEETXS, successThreshold, true, nBestSeenHeight); + if (medMax > 0 && (estimate == -1 || medMax < estimate)) + estimate = medMax; + } + if (confTarget > shortStats->GetMaxConfirms()) { + double shortMax = shortStats->EstimateMedianVal(shortStats->GetMaxConfirms(), SUFFICIENT_TXS_SHORT, successThreshold, true, nBestSeenHeight); + if (shortMax > 0 && (estimate == -1 || shortMax < estimate)) + estimate = shortMax; + } + } + } + return estimate; +} + +/** Ensure that for a conservative estimate, the DOUBLE_SUCCESS_PCT is also met + * at 2 * target for any longer time horizons. + */ +double CBlockPolicyEstimator::estimateConservativeFee(unsigned int doubleTarget) const +{ + double estimate = -1; + if (doubleTarget <= shortStats->GetMaxConfirms()) { + estimate = feeStats->EstimateMedianVal(doubleTarget, SUFFICIENT_FEETXS, DOUBLE_SUCCESS_PCT, true, nBestSeenHeight); + } + if (doubleTarget <= feeStats->GetMaxConfirms()) { + double longEstimate = longStats->EstimateMedianVal(doubleTarget, SUFFICIENT_FEETXS, DOUBLE_SUCCESS_PCT, true, nBestSeenHeight); + if (longEstimate > estimate) { + estimate = longEstimate; + } + } + return estimate; +} + +/** estimateSmartFee returns the max of the feerates calculated with a 60% + * threshold required at target / 2, an 85% threshold required at target and a + * 95% threshold required at 2 * target. Each calculation is performed at the + * shortest time horizon which tracks the required target. Conservative + * estimates, however, required the 95% threshold at 2 * target be met for any + * longer time horizons also. + */ +CFeeRate CBlockPolicyEstimator::estimateSmartFee(int confTarget, int *answerFoundAtTarget, const CTxMemPool& pool, bool conservative) const { if (answerFoundAtTarget) *answerFoundAtTarget = confTarget; double median = -1; - { LOCK(cs_feeEstimator); // Return failure if trying to analyze a target we're not tracking - if (confTarget <= 0 || (unsigned int)confTarget > feeStats->GetMaxConfirms()) + if (confTarget <= 0 || (unsigned int)confTarget > longStats->GetMaxConfirms()) return CFeeRate(0); // It's not possible to get reasonable estimates for confTarget of 1 if (confTarget == 1) confTarget = 2; - while (median < 0 && (unsigned int)confTarget <= feeStats->GetMaxConfirms()) { - median = feeStats->EstimateMedianVal(confTarget++, SUFFICIENT_FEETXS, MIN_SUCCESS_PCT, true, nBestSeenHeight); + unsigned int maxUsableEstimate = MaxUsableEstimate(); + if (maxUsableEstimate <= 1) + return CFeeRate(0); + + if ((unsigned int)confTarget > maxUsableEstimate) { + confTarget = maxUsableEstimate; + } + + assert(confTarget > 0); //estimateCombinedFee and estimateConservativeFee take unsigned ints + + /** true is passed to estimateCombined fee for target/2 and target so + * that we check the max confirms for shorter time horizons as well. + * This is necessary to preserve monotonically increasing estimates. + * For non-conservative estimates we do the same thing for 2*target, but + * for conservative estimates we want to skip these shorter horizons + * checks for 2*target becuase we are taking the max over all time + * horizons so we already have monotonically increasing estimates and + * the purpose of conservative estimates is not to let short term + * fluctuations lower our estimates by too much. + */ + double halfEst = estimateCombinedFee(confTarget/2, HALF_SUCCESS_PCT, true); + double actualEst = estimateCombinedFee(confTarget, SUCCESS_PCT, true); + double doubleEst = estimateCombinedFee(2 * confTarget, DOUBLE_SUCCESS_PCT, !conservative); + median = halfEst; + if (actualEst > median) { + median = actualEst; + } + if (doubleEst > median) { + median = doubleEst; + } + + if (conservative || median == -1) { + double consEst = estimateConservativeFee(2 * confTarget); + if (consEst > median) { + median = consEst; + } } } // Must unlock cs_feeEstimator before taking mempool locks if (answerFoundAtTarget) - *answerFoundAtTarget = confTarget - 1; + *answerFoundAtTarget = confTarget; // If mempool is limiting txs , return at least the min feerate from the mempool CAmount minPoolFee = pool.GetMinFee(GetArg("-maxmempool", DEFAULT_MAX_MEMPOOL_SIZE) * 1000000).GetFeePerK(); @@ -576,14 +824,24 @@ CFeeRate CBlockPolicyEstimator::estimateSmartFee(int confTarget, int *answerFoun return CFeeRate(median); } + bool CBlockPolicyEstimator::Write(CAutoFile& fileout) const { try { LOCK(cs_feeEstimator); - fileout << 139900; // version required to read: 0.13.99 or later + fileout << 149900; // version required to read: 0.14.99 or later fileout << CLIENT_VERSION; // version that wrote the file fileout << nBestSeenHeight; + if (BlockSpan() > HistoricalBlockSpan()/2) { + fileout << firstRecordedHeight << nBestSeenHeight; + } + else { + fileout << historicalFirst << historicalBest; + } + fileout << buckets; feeStats->Write(fileout); + shortStats->Write(fileout); + longStats->Write(fileout); } catch (const std::exception&) { LogPrintf("CBlockPolicyEstimator::Write(): unable to write policy estimator data (non-fatal)\n"); @@ -596,27 +854,104 @@ bool CBlockPolicyEstimator::Read(CAutoFile& filein) { try { LOCK(cs_feeEstimator); - int nVersionRequired, nVersionThatWrote, nFileBestSeenHeight; + int nVersionRequired, nVersionThatWrote; + unsigned int nFileBestSeenHeight, nFileHistoricalFirst, nFileHistoricalBest; filein >> nVersionRequired >> nVersionThatWrote; if (nVersionRequired > CLIENT_VERSION) return error("CBlockPolicyEstimator::Read(): up-version (%d) fee estimate file", nVersionRequired); + + // Read fee estimates file into temporary variables so existing data + // structures aren't corrupted if there is an exception. filein >> nFileBestSeenHeight; - feeStats->Read(filein); - nBestSeenHeight = nFileBestSeenHeight; - // if nVersionThatWrote < 139900 then another TxConfirmStats (for priority) follows but can be ignored. + + if (nVersionThatWrote < 149900) { + // Read the old fee estimates file for temporary use, but then discard. Will start collecting data from scratch. + // decay is stored before buckets in old versions, so pre-read decay and pass into TxConfirmStats constructor + double tempDecay; + filein >> tempDecay; + if (tempDecay <= 0 || tempDecay >= 1) + throw std::runtime_error("Corrupt estimates file. Decay must be between 0 and 1 (non-inclusive)"); + + std::vector<double> tempBuckets; + filein >> tempBuckets; + size_t tempNum = tempBuckets.size(); + if (tempNum <= 1 || tempNum > 1000) + throw std::runtime_error("Corrupt estimates file. Must have between 2 and 1000 feerate buckets"); + + std::map<double, unsigned int> tempMap; + + std::unique_ptr<TxConfirmStats> tempFeeStats(new TxConfirmStats(tempBuckets, tempMap, MED_BLOCK_PERIODS, tempDecay, 1)); + tempFeeStats->Read(filein, nVersionThatWrote, tempNum); + // if nVersionThatWrote < 139900 then another TxConfirmStats (for priority) follows but can be ignored. + + tempMap.clear(); + for (unsigned int i = 0; i < tempBuckets.size(); i++) { + tempMap[tempBuckets[i]] = i; + } + } + else { // nVersionThatWrote >= 149900 + filein >> nFileHistoricalFirst >> nFileHistoricalBest; + if (nFileHistoricalFirst > nFileHistoricalBest || nFileHistoricalBest > nFileBestSeenHeight) { + throw std::runtime_error("Corrupt estimates file. Historical block range for estimates is invalid"); + } + std::vector<double> fileBuckets; + filein >> fileBuckets; + size_t numBuckets = fileBuckets.size(); + if (numBuckets <= 1 || numBuckets > 1000) + throw std::runtime_error("Corrupt estimates file. Must have between 2 and 1000 feerate buckets"); + + std::unique_ptr<TxConfirmStats> fileFeeStats(new TxConfirmStats(buckets, bucketMap, MED_BLOCK_PERIODS, MED_DECAY, MED_SCALE)); + std::unique_ptr<TxConfirmStats> fileShortStats(new TxConfirmStats(buckets, bucketMap, SHORT_BLOCK_PERIODS, SHORT_DECAY, SHORT_SCALE)); + std::unique_ptr<TxConfirmStats> fileLongStats(new TxConfirmStats(buckets, bucketMap, LONG_BLOCK_PERIODS, LONG_DECAY, LONG_SCALE)); + fileFeeStats->Read(filein, nVersionThatWrote, numBuckets); + fileShortStats->Read(filein, nVersionThatWrote, numBuckets); + fileLongStats->Read(filein, nVersionThatWrote, numBuckets); + + // Fee estimates file parsed correctly + // Copy buckets from file and refresh our bucketmap + buckets = fileBuckets; + bucketMap.clear(); + for (unsigned int i = 0; i < buckets.size(); i++) { + bucketMap[buckets[i]] = i; + } + + // Destroy old TxConfirmStats and point to new ones that already reference buckets and bucketMap + delete feeStats; + delete shortStats; + delete longStats; + feeStats = fileFeeStats.release(); + shortStats = fileShortStats.release(); + longStats = fileLongStats.release(); + + nBestSeenHeight = nFileBestSeenHeight; + historicalFirst = nFileHistoricalFirst; + historicalBest = nFileHistoricalBest; + } } - catch (const std::exception&) { - LogPrintf("CBlockPolicyEstimator::Read(): unable to read policy estimator data (non-fatal)\n"); + catch (const std::exception& e) { + LogPrintf("CBlockPolicyEstimator::Read(): unable to read policy estimator data (non-fatal): %s\n",e.what()); return false; } return true; } +void CBlockPolicyEstimator::FlushUnconfirmed(CTxMemPool& pool) { + int64_t startclear = GetTimeMicros(); + std::vector<uint256> txids; + pool.queryHashes(txids); + LOCK(cs_feeEstimator); + for (auto& txid : txids) { + removeTx(txid, false); + } + int64_t endclear = GetTimeMicros(); + LogPrint(BCLog::ESTIMATEFEE, "Recorded %u unconfirmed txs from mempool in %ld micros\n",txids.size(), endclear - startclear); +} + FeeFilterRounder::FeeFilterRounder(const CFeeRate& minIncrementalFee) { CAmount minFeeLimit = std::max(CAmount(1), minIncrementalFee.GetFeePerK() / 2); feeset.insert(0); - for (double bucketBoundary = minFeeLimit; bucketBoundary <= MAX_BUCKET_FEERATE; bucketBoundary *= FEE_SPACING) { + for (double bucketBoundary = minFeeLimit; bucketBoundary <= MAX_FILTER_FEERATE; bucketBoundary *= FEE_FILTER_SPACING) { feeset.insert(bucketBoundary); } } diff --git a/src/policy/fees.h b/src/policy/fees.h index 15876574d2..f527c85004 100644 --- a/src/policy/fees.h +++ b/src/policy/fees.h @@ -42,53 +42,57 @@ class TxConfirmStats; * within your desired 5 blocks. * * Here is a brief description of the implementation: - * When a transaction enters the mempool, we - * track the height of the block chain at entry. Whenever a block comes in, - * we count the number of transactions in each bucket and the total amount of feerate - * paid in each bucket. Then we calculate how many blocks Y it took each - * transaction to be mined and we track an array of counters in each bucket - * for how long it to took transactions to get confirmed from 1 to a max of 25 - * and we increment all the counters from Y up to 25. This is because for any - * number Z>=Y the transaction was successfully mined within Z blocks. We - * want to save a history of this information, so at any time we have a - * counter of the total number of transactions that happened in a given feerate - * bucket and the total number that were confirmed in each number 1-25 blocks - * or less for any bucket. We save this history by keeping an exponentially - * decaying moving average of each one of these stats. Furthermore we also - * keep track of the number unmined (in mempool) transactions in each bucket - * and for how many blocks they have been outstanding and use that to increase - * the number of transactions we've seen in that feerate bucket when calculating - * an estimate for any number of confirmations below the number of blocks - * they've been outstanding. + * When a transaction enters the mempool, we track the height of the block chain + * at entry. All further calculations are conducted only on this set of "seen" + * transactions. Whenever a block comes in, we count the number of transactions + * in each bucket and the total amount of feerate paid in each bucket. Then we + * calculate how many blocks Y it took each transaction to be mined. We convert + * from a number of blocks to a number of periods Y' each encompassing "scale" + * blocks. This is is tracked in 3 different data sets each up to a maximum + * number of periods. Within each data set we have an array of counters in each + * feerate bucket and we increment all the counters from Y' up to max periods + * representing that a tx was successfullly confirmed in less than or equal to + * that many periods. We want to save a history of this information, so at any + * time we have a counter of the total number of transactions that happened in a + * given feerate bucket and the total number that were confirmed in each of the + * periods or less for any bucket. We save this history by keeping an + * exponentially decaying moving average of each one of these stats. This is + * done for a different decay in each of the 3 data sets to keep relevant data + * from different time horizons. Furthermore we also keep track of the number + * unmined (in mempool or left mempool without being included in a block) + * transactions in each bucket and for how many blocks they have been + * outstanding and use both of these numbers to increase the number of transactions + * we've seen in that feerate bucket when calculating an estimate for any number + * of confirmations below the number of blocks they've been outstanding. */ -/** Track confirm delays up to 25 blocks, can't estimate beyond that */ -static const unsigned int MAX_BLOCK_CONFIRMS = 25; - -/** Decay of .998 is a half-life of 346 blocks or about 2.4 days */ -static const double DEFAULT_DECAY = .998; - -/** Require greater than 95% of X feerate transactions to be confirmed within Y blocks for X to be big enough */ -static const double MIN_SUCCESS_PCT = .95; - -/** Require an avg of 1 tx in the combined feerate bucket per block to have stat significance */ -static const double SUFFICIENT_FEETXS = 1; +/* Identifier for each of the 3 different TxConfirmStats which will track + * history over different time horizons. */ +enum FeeEstimateHorizon { + SHORT_HALFLIFE = 0, + MED_HALFLIFE = 1, + LONG_HALFLIFE = 2 +}; -// Minimum and Maximum values for tracking feerates -// The MIN_BUCKET_FEERATE should just be set to the lowest reasonable feerate we -// might ever want to track. Historically this has been 1000 since it was -// inheriting DEFAULT_MIN_RELAY_TX_FEE and changing it is disruptive as it -// invalidates old estimates files. So leave it at 1000 unless it becomes -// necessary to lower it, and then lower it substantially. -static constexpr double MIN_BUCKET_FEERATE = 1000; -static const double MAX_BUCKET_FEERATE = 1e7; -static const double INF_FEERATE = MAX_MONEY; +/* Used to return detailed information about a feerate bucket */ +struct EstimatorBucket +{ + double start = -1; + double end = -1; + double withinTarget = 0; + double totalConfirmed = 0; + double inMempool = 0; + double leftMempool = 0; +}; -// We have to lump transactions into buckets based on feerate, but we want to be able -// to give accurate estimates over a large range of potential feerates -// Therefore it makes sense to exponentially space the buckets -/** Spacing of FeeRate buckets */ -static const double FEE_SPACING = 1.1; +/* Used to return detailed information about a fee estimate calculation */ +struct EstimationResult +{ + EstimatorBucket pass; + EstimatorBucket fail; + double decay; + unsigned int scale; +}; /** * We want to be able to estimate feerates that are needed on tx's to be included in @@ -97,6 +101,55 @@ static const double FEE_SPACING = 1.1; */ class CBlockPolicyEstimator { +private: + /** Track confirm delays up to 12 blocks for short horizon */ + static constexpr unsigned int SHORT_BLOCK_PERIODS = 12; + static constexpr unsigned int SHORT_SCALE = 1; + /** Track confirm delays up to 48 blocks for medium horizon */ + static constexpr unsigned int MED_BLOCK_PERIODS = 24; + static constexpr unsigned int MED_SCALE = 2; + /** Track confirm delays up to 1008 blocks for long horizon */ + static constexpr unsigned int LONG_BLOCK_PERIODS = 42; + static constexpr unsigned int LONG_SCALE = 24; + /** Historical estimates that are older than this aren't valid */ + static const unsigned int OLDEST_ESTIMATE_HISTORY = 6 * 1008; + + /** Decay of .962 is a half-life of 18 blocks or about 3 hours */ + static constexpr double SHORT_DECAY = .962; + /** Decay of .998 is a half-life of 144 blocks or about 1 day */ + static constexpr double MED_DECAY = .9952; + /** Decay of .9995 is a half-life of 1008 blocks or about 1 week */ + static constexpr double LONG_DECAY = .99931; + + /** Require greater than 60% of X feerate transactions to be confirmed within Y/2 blocks*/ + static constexpr double HALF_SUCCESS_PCT = .6; + /** Require greater than 85% of X feerate transactions to be confirmed within Y blocks*/ + static constexpr double SUCCESS_PCT = .85; + /** Require greater than 95% of X feerate transactions to be confirmed within 2 * Y blocks*/ + static constexpr double DOUBLE_SUCCESS_PCT = .95; + + /** Require an avg of 0.1 tx in the combined feerate bucket per block to have stat significance */ + static constexpr double SUFFICIENT_FEETXS = 0.1; + /** Require an avg of 0.5 tx when using short decay since there are fewer blocks considered*/ + static constexpr double SUFFICIENT_TXS_SHORT = 0.5; + + /** Minimum and Maximum values for tracking feerates + * The MIN_BUCKET_FEERATE should just be set to the lowest reasonable feerate we + * might ever want to track. Historically this has been 1000 since it was + * inheriting DEFAULT_MIN_RELAY_TX_FEE and changing it is disruptive as it + * invalidates old estimates files. So leave it at 1000 unless it becomes + * necessary to lower it, and then lower it substantially. + */ + static constexpr double MIN_BUCKET_FEERATE = 1000; + static constexpr double MAX_BUCKET_FEERATE = 1e7; + + /** Spacing of FeeRate buckets + * We have to lump transactions into buckets based on feerate, but we want to be able + * to give accurate estimates over a large range of potential feerates + * Therefore it makes sense to exponentially space the buckets + */ + static constexpr double FEE_SPACING = 1.05; + public: /** Create new BlockPolicyEstimator and initialize stats tracking classes with default values */ CBlockPolicyEstimator(); @@ -110,16 +163,23 @@ public: void processTransaction(const CTxMemPoolEntry& entry, bool validFeeEstimate); /** Remove a transaction from the mempool tracking stats*/ - bool removeTx(uint256 hash); + bool removeTx(uint256 hash, bool inBlock); - /** Return a feerate estimate */ + /** DEPRECATED. Return a feerate estimate */ CFeeRate estimateFee(int confTarget) const; - /** Estimate feerate needed to get be included in a block within - * confTarget blocks. If no answer can be given at confTarget, return an - * estimate at the lowest target where one can be given. + /** Estimate feerate needed to get be included in a block within confTarget + * blocks. If no answer can be given at confTarget, return an estimate at + * the closest target where one can be given. 'conservative' estimates are + * valid over longer time horizons also. + */ + CFeeRate estimateSmartFee(int confTarget, int *answerFoundAtTarget, const CTxMemPool& pool, bool conservative = true) const; + + /** Return a specific fee estimate calculation with a given success + * threshold and time horizon, and optionally return detailed data about + * calculation */ - CFeeRate estimateSmartFee(int confTarget, int *answerFoundAtTarget, const CTxMemPool& pool) const; + CFeeRate estimateRawFee(int confTarget, double successThreshold, FeeEstimateHorizon horizon, EstimationResult *result = nullptr) const; /** Write estimation data to a file */ bool Write(CAutoFile& fileout) const; @@ -127,9 +187,15 @@ public: /** Read estimation data from a file */ bool Read(CAutoFile& filein); + /** Empty mempool transactions on shutdown to record failure to confirm for txs still in mempool */ + void FlushUnconfirmed(CTxMemPool& pool); + private: - CFeeRate minTrackedFee; //!< Passed to constructor to avoid dependency on main unsigned int nBestSeenHeight; + unsigned int firstRecordedHeight; + unsigned int historicalFirst; + unsigned int historicalBest; + struct TxStatsInfo { unsigned int blockHeight; @@ -142,19 +208,42 @@ private: /** Classes to track historical data on transaction confirmations */ TxConfirmStats* feeStats; + TxConfirmStats* shortStats; + TxConfirmStats* longStats; unsigned int trackedTxs; unsigned int untrackedTxs; + std::vector<double> buckets; // The upper-bound of the range for the bucket (inclusive) + std::map<double, unsigned int> bucketMap; // Map of bucket upper-bound to index into all vectors by bucket + mutable CCriticalSection cs_feeEstimator; /** Process a transaction confirmed in a block*/ bool processBlockTx(unsigned int nBlockHeight, const CTxMemPoolEntry* entry); + /** Helper for estimateSmartFee */ + double estimateCombinedFee(unsigned int confTarget, double successThreshold, bool checkShorterHorizon) const; + /** Helper for estimateSmartFee */ + double estimateConservativeFee(unsigned int doubleTarget) const; + /** Number of blocks of data recorded while fee estimates have been running */ + unsigned int BlockSpan() const; + /** Number of blocks of recorded fee estimate data represented in saved data file */ + unsigned int HistoricalBlockSpan() const; + /** Calculation of highest target that reasonable estimate can be provided for */ + unsigned int MaxUsableEstimate() const; }; class FeeFilterRounder { +private: + static constexpr double MAX_FILTER_FEERATE = 1e7; + /** FEE_FILTER_SPACING is just used to provide some quantization of fee + * filter results. Historically it reused FEE_SPACING, but it is completely + * unrelated, and was made a separate constant so the two concepts are not + * tied together */ + static constexpr double FEE_FILTER_SPACING = 1.1; + public: /** Create new FeeFilterRounder */ FeeFilterRounder(const CFeeRate& minIncrementalFee); @@ -166,4 +255,5 @@ private: std::set<double> feeset; FastRandomContext insecure_rand; }; + #endif /*BITCOIN_POLICYESTIMATOR_H */ |