Change parameters for fee estimation and estimates on all 3 time horizons.

Make feerate buckets smaller (5% instead of 10%) and make the 3 different horizons have half lifes of 3 hours, 1 day and 1 week respectively.

3 files changed, 89 insertions, 51 deletions

diff --git a/src/policy/fees.cpp b/src/policy/fees.cpp
index 0f3f2c63d2..42059cf94f 100644
--- a/src/policy/fees.cpp
+++ b/src/policy/fees.cpp
@@ -14,6 +14,8 @@
 #include "txmempool.h"
 #include "util.h"
 
+static constexpr double INF_FEERATE = 1e99;
+
 /**
  * We will instantiate an instance of this class to track transactions that were
  * included in a block. We will lump transactions into a bucket according to their
@@ -400,6 +402,8 @@ bool CBlockPolicyEstimator::removeTx(uint256 hash)
     std::map<uint256, TxStatsInfo>::iterator pos = mapMemPoolTxs.find(hash);
     if (pos != mapMemPoolTxs.end()) {
         feeStats->removeTx(pos->second.blockHeight, nBestSeenHeight, pos->second.bucketIndex);
+        shortStats->removeTx(pos->second.blockHeight, nBestSeenHeight, pos->second.bucketIndex);
+        longStats->removeTx(pos->second.blockHeight, nBestSeenHeight, pos->second.bucketIndex);
         mapMemPoolTxs.erase(hash);
         return true;
     } else {
@@ -421,9 +425,9 @@ CBlockPolicyEstimator::CBlockPolicyEstimator()
     bucketMap[INF_FEERATE] = bucketIndex;
     assert(bucketMap.size() == buckets.size());
 
-    feeStats = new TxConfirmStats(buckets, bucketMap, MAX_BLOCK_CONFIRMS, DEFAULT_DECAY);
-    shortStats = new TxConfirmStats(buckets, bucketMap, MAX_BLOCK_CONFIRMS, DEFAULT_DECAY);
-    longStats = new TxConfirmStats(buckets, bucketMap, MAX_BLOCK_CONFIRMS, DEFAULT_DECAY);
+    feeStats = new TxConfirmStats(buckets, bucketMap, MED_BLOCK_CONFIRMS, MED_DECAY);
+    shortStats = new TxConfirmStats(buckets, bucketMap, SHORT_BLOCK_CONFIRMS, SHORT_DECAY);
+    longStats = new TxConfirmStats(buckets, bucketMap, LONG_BLOCK_CONFIRMS, LONG_DECAY);
 }
 
 CBlockPolicyEstimator::~CBlockPolicyEstimator()
@@ -464,7 +468,12 @@ void CBlockPolicyEstimator::processTransaction(const CTxMemPoolEntry& entry, boo
     CFeeRate feeRate(entry.GetFee(), entry.GetTxSize());
 
     mapMemPoolTxs[hash].blockHeight = txHeight;
-    mapMemPoolTxs[hash].bucketIndex = feeStats->NewTx(txHeight, (double)feeRate.GetFeePerK());
+    unsigned int bucketIndex = feeStats->NewTx(txHeight, (double)feeRate.GetFeePerK());
+    mapMemPoolTxs[hash].bucketIndex = bucketIndex;
+    unsigned int bucketIndex2 = shortStats->NewTx(txHeight, (double)feeRate.GetFeePerK());
+    assert(bucketIndex == bucketIndex2);
+    unsigned int bucketIndex3 = longStats->NewTx(txHeight, (double)feeRate.GetFeePerK());
+    assert(bucketIndex == bucketIndex3);
 }
 
 bool CBlockPolicyEstimator::processBlockTx(unsigned int nBlockHeight, const CTxMemPoolEntry* entry)
@@ -489,6 +498,8 @@ bool CBlockPolicyEstimator::processBlockTx(unsigned int nBlockHeight, const CTxM
     CFeeRate feeRate(entry->GetFee(), entry->GetTxSize());
 
     feeStats->Record(blocksToConfirm, (double)feeRate.GetFeePerK());
+    shortStats->Record(blocksToConfirm, (double)feeRate.GetFeePerK());
+    longStats->Record(blocksToConfirm, (double)feeRate.GetFeePerK());
     return true;
 }
 
@@ -512,6 +523,8 @@ void CBlockPolicyEstimator::processBlock(unsigned int nBlockHeight,
 
     // Clear the current block state and update unconfirmed circular buffer
     feeStats->ClearCurrent(nBlockHeight);
+    shortStats->ClearCurrent(nBlockHeight);
+    longStats->ClearCurrent(nBlockHeight);
 
     unsigned int countedTxs = 0;
     // Repopulate the current block states
@@ -522,6 +535,8 @@ void CBlockPolicyEstimator::processBlock(unsigned int nBlockHeight,
 
     // Update all exponential averages with the current block state
     feeStats->UpdateMovingAverages();
+    shortStats->UpdateMovingAverages();
+    longStats->UpdateMovingAverages();
 
     LogPrint(BCLog::ESTIMATEFEE, "Blockpolicy after updating estimates for %u of %u txs in block, since last block %u of %u tracked, new mempool map size %u\n",
              countedTxs, entries.size(), trackedTxs, trackedTxs + untrackedTxs, mapMemPoolTxs.size());
@@ -538,7 +553,7 @@ CFeeRate CBlockPolicyEstimator::estimateFee(int confTarget) const
     if (confTarget <= 1 || (unsigned int)confTarget > feeStats->GetMaxConfirms())
         return CFeeRate(0);
 
-    double median = feeStats->EstimateMedianVal(confTarget, SUFFICIENT_FEETXS, MIN_SUCCESS_PCT, true, nBestSeenHeight);
+    double median = feeStats->EstimateMedianVal(confTarget, SUFFICIENT_FEETXS, DOUBLE_SUCCESS_PCT, true, nBestSeenHeight);
 
     if (median < 0)
         return CFeeRate(0);
@@ -565,7 +580,7 @@ CFeeRate CBlockPolicyEstimator::estimateSmartFee(int confTarget, int *answerFoun
             confTarget = 2;
 
         while (median < 0 && (unsigned int)confTarget <= feeStats->GetMaxConfirms()) {
-            median = feeStats->EstimateMedianVal(confTarget++, SUFFICIENT_FEETXS, MIN_SUCCESS_PCT, true, nBestSeenHeight);
+            median = feeStats->EstimateMedianVal(confTarget++, SUFFICIENT_FEETXS, DOUBLE_SUCCESS_PCT, true, nBestSeenHeight);
         }
     } // Must unlock cs_feeEstimator before taking mempool locks
 
@@ -634,7 +649,7 @@ bool CBlockPolicyEstimator::Read(CAutoFile& filein)
 
             std::map<double, unsigned int> tempMap;
 
-            std::unique_ptr<TxConfirmStats> tempFeeStats(new TxConfirmStats(tempBuckets, tempMap, MAX_BLOCK_CONFIRMS, tempDecay));
+            std::unique_ptr<TxConfirmStats> tempFeeStats(new TxConfirmStats(tempBuckets, tempMap, MED_BLOCK_CONFIRMS, tempDecay));
             tempFeeStats->Read(filein, nVersionThatWrote, tempNum);
             // if nVersionThatWrote < 139900 then another TxConfirmStats (for priority) follows but can be ignored.
 
@@ -653,9 +668,9 @@ bool CBlockPolicyEstimator::Read(CAutoFile& filein)
             if (numBuckets <= 1 || numBuckets > 1000)
                 throw std::runtime_error("Corrupt estimates file. Must have between 2 and 1000 feerate buckets");
 
-            std::unique_ptr<TxConfirmStats> fileFeeStats(new TxConfirmStats(buckets, bucketMap, MAX_BLOCK_CONFIRMS, DEFAULT_DECAY));
-            std::unique_ptr<TxConfirmStats> fileShortStats(new TxConfirmStats(buckets, bucketMap, MAX_BLOCK_CONFIRMS, DEFAULT_DECAY));
-            std::unique_ptr<TxConfirmStats> fileLongStats(new TxConfirmStats(buckets, bucketMap, MAX_BLOCK_CONFIRMS, DEFAULT_DECAY));
+            std::unique_ptr<TxConfirmStats> fileFeeStats(new TxConfirmStats(buckets, bucketMap, MED_BLOCK_CONFIRMS, MED_DECAY));
+            std::unique_ptr<TxConfirmStats> fileShortStats(new TxConfirmStats(buckets, bucketMap, SHORT_BLOCK_CONFIRMS, SHORT_DECAY));
+            std::unique_ptr<TxConfirmStats> fileLongStats(new TxConfirmStats(buckets, bucketMap, LONG_BLOCK_CONFIRMS, LONG_DECAY));
             fileFeeStats->Read(filein, nVersionThatWrote, numBuckets);
             fileShortStats->Read(filein, nVersionThatWrote, numBuckets);
             fileLongStats->Read(filein, nVersionThatWrote, numBuckets);
@@ -690,7 +705,7 @@ FeeFilterRounder::FeeFilterRounder(const CFeeRate& minIncrementalFee)
 {
     CAmount minFeeLimit = std::max(CAmount(1), minIncrementalFee.GetFeePerK() / 2);
     feeset.insert(0);
-    for (double bucketBoundary = minFeeLimit; bucketBoundary <= MAX_BUCKET_FEERATE; bucketBoundary *= FEE_SPACING) {
+    for (double bucketBoundary = minFeeLimit; bucketBoundary <= MAX_FILTER_FEERATE; bucketBoundary *= FEE_FILTER_SPACING) {
         feeset.insert(bucketBoundary);
     }
 }
diff --git a/src/policy/fees.h b/src/policy/fees.h
index 7aaba7d7d5..0df40df42a 100644
--- a/src/policy/fees.h
+++ b/src/policy/fees.h
@@ -61,34 +61,6 @@ class TxConfirmStats;
  * they've been outstanding.
  */
 
-/** Track confirm delays up to 25 blocks, can't estimate beyond that */
-static const unsigned int MAX_BLOCK_CONFIRMS = 25;
-
-/** Decay of .998 is a half-life of 346 blocks or about 2.4 days */
-static const double DEFAULT_DECAY = .998;
-
-/** Require greater than 95% of X feerate transactions to be confirmed within Y blocks for X to be big enough */
-static const double MIN_SUCCESS_PCT = .95;
-
-/** Require an avg of 1 tx in the combined feerate bucket per block to have stat significance */
-static const double SUFFICIENT_FEETXS = 1;
-
-// Minimum and Maximum values for tracking feerates
-// The MIN_BUCKET_FEERATE should just be set to the lowest reasonable feerate we
-// might ever want to track.  Historically this has been 1000 since it was
-// inheriting DEFAULT_MIN_RELAY_TX_FEE and changing it is disruptive as it
-// invalidates old estimates files. So leave it at 1000 unless it becomes
-// necessary to lower it, and then lower it substantially.
-static constexpr double MIN_BUCKET_FEERATE = 1000;
-static const double MAX_BUCKET_FEERATE = 1e7;
-static const double INF_FEERATE = MAX_MONEY;
-
-// We have to lump transactions into buckets based on feerate, but we want to be able
-// to give accurate estimates over a large range of potential feerates
-// Therefore it makes sense to exponentially space the buckets
-/** Spacing of FeeRate buckets */
-static const double FEE_SPACING = 1.1;
-
 /**
  *  We want to be able to estimate feerates that are needed on tx's to be included in
  * a certain number of blocks.  Every time a block is added to the best chain, this class records
@@ -96,6 +68,46 @@ static const double FEE_SPACING = 1.1;
  */
 class CBlockPolicyEstimator
 {
+private:
+    /** Track confirm delays up to 12 blocks medium decay */
+    static constexpr unsigned int SHORT_BLOCK_CONFIRMS = 12;
+    /** Track confirm delays up to 48 blocks medium decay */
+    static constexpr unsigned int MED_BLOCK_CONFIRMS = 48;
+    /** Track confirm delays up to 1008 blocks for longer decay */
+    static constexpr unsigned int LONG_BLOCK_CONFIRMS = 1008;
+
+    /** Decay of .962 is a half-life of 18 blocks or about 3 hours */
+    static constexpr double SHORT_DECAY = .962;
+    /** Decay of .998 is a half-life of 144 blocks or about 1 day */
+    static constexpr double MED_DECAY = .9952;
+    /** Decay of .9995 is a half-life of 1008 blocks or about 1 week */
+    static constexpr double LONG_DECAY = .99931;
+
+    /** Require greater than 95% of X feerate transactions to be confirmed within Y blocks for X to be big enough */
+    static constexpr double HALF_SUCCESS_PCT = .6;
+    static constexpr double SUCCESS_PCT = .85;
+    static constexpr double DOUBLE_SUCCESS_PCT = .95;
+
+    /** Require an avg of 1 tx in the combined feerate bucket per block to have stat significance */
+    static constexpr double SUFFICIENT_FEETXS = 1;
+
+    /** Minimum and Maximum values for tracking feerates
+     * The MIN_BUCKET_FEERATE should just be set to the lowest reasonable feerate we
+     * might ever want to track.  Historically this has been 1000 since it was
+     * inheriting DEFAULT_MIN_RELAY_TX_FEE and changing it is disruptive as it
+     * invalidates old estimates files. So leave it at 1000 unless it becomes
+     * necessary to lower it, and then lower it substantially.
+     */
+    static constexpr double MIN_BUCKET_FEERATE = 1000;
+    static constexpr double MAX_BUCKET_FEERATE = 1e7;
+
+    /** Spacing of FeeRate buckets
+     * We have to lump transactions into buckets based on feerate, but we want to be able
+     * to give accurate estimates over a large range of potential feerates
+     * Therefore it makes sense to exponentially space the buckets
+     */
+    static constexpr double FEE_SPACING = 1.05;
+
 public:
     /** Create new BlockPolicyEstimator and initialize stats tracking classes with default values */
     CBlockPolicyEstimator();
@@ -159,6 +171,14 @@ private:
 
 class FeeFilterRounder
 {
+private:
+    static constexpr double MAX_FILTER_FEERATE = 1e7;
+    /** FEE_FILTER_SPACING is just used to provide some quantization of fee
+     * filter results.  Historically it reused FEE_SPACING, but it is completely
+     * unrelated, and was made a separate constant so the two concepts are not
+     * tied together */
+    static constexpr double FEE_FILTER_SPACING = 1.1;
+
 public:
     /** Create new FeeFilterRounder */
     FeeFilterRounder(const CFeeRate& minIncrementalFee);
diff --git a/src/test/policyestimator_tests.cpp b/src/test/policyestimator_tests.cpp
index ed6782ea34..942efce0f7 100644
--- a/src/test/policyestimator_tests.cpp
+++ b/src/test/policyestimator_tests.cpp
@@ -50,8 +50,8 @@ BOOST_AUTO_TEST_CASE(BlockPolicyEstimates)
     int blocknum = 0;
 
     // Loop through 200 blocks
-    // At a decay .998 and 4 fee transactions per block
-    // This makes the tx count about 1.33 per bucket, above the 1 threshold
+    // At a decay .9952 and 4 fee transactions per block
+    // This makes the tx count about 2.5 per bucket, well above the 0.1 threshold
     while (blocknum < 200) {
         for (int j = 0; j < 10; j++) { // For each fee
             for (int k = 0; k < 4; k++) { // add 4 fee txs
@@ -75,18 +75,17 @@ BOOST_AUTO_TEST_CASE(BlockPolicyEstimates)
         }
         mpool.removeForBlock(block, ++blocknum);
         block.clear();
-        if (blocknum == 30) {
-            // At this point we should need to combine 5 buckets to get enough data points
-            // So estimateFee(1,2,3) should fail and estimateFee(4) should return somewhere around
-            // 8*baserate.  estimateFee(4) %'s are 100,100,100,100,90 = average 98%
+        // Check after just a few txs that combining buckets works as expected
+        if (blocknum == 3) {
+            // At this point we should need to combine 3 buckets to get enough data points
+            // So estimateFee(1) should fail and estimateFee(2) should return somewhere around
+            // 9*baserate.  estimateFee(2) %'s are 100,100,90 = average 97%
             BOOST_CHECK(feeEst.estimateFee(1) == CFeeRate(0));
-            BOOST_CHECK(feeEst.estimateFee(2) == CFeeRate(0));
-            BOOST_CHECK(feeEst.estimateFee(3) == CFeeRate(0));
-            BOOST_CHECK(feeEst.estimateFee(4).GetFeePerK() < 8*baseRate.GetFeePerK() + deltaFee);
-            BOOST_CHECK(feeEst.estimateFee(4).GetFeePerK() > 8*baseRate.GetFeePerK() - deltaFee);
+            BOOST_CHECK(feeEst.estimateFee(2).GetFeePerK() < 9*baseRate.GetFeePerK() + deltaFee);
+            BOOST_CHECK(feeEst.estimateFee(2).GetFeePerK() > 9*baseRate.GetFeePerK() - deltaFee);
             int answerFound;
-            BOOST_CHECK(feeEst.estimateSmartFee(1, &answerFound, mpool) == feeEst.estimateFee(4) && answerFound == 4);
-            BOOST_CHECK(feeEst.estimateSmartFee(3, &answerFound, mpool) == feeEst.estimateFee(4) && answerFound == 4);
+            BOOST_CHECK(feeEst.estimateSmartFee(1, &answerFound, mpool) == feeEst.estimateFee(2) && answerFound == 2);
+            BOOST_CHECK(feeEst.estimateSmartFee(2, &answerFound, mpool) == feeEst.estimateFee(2) && answerFound == 2);
             BOOST_CHECK(feeEst.estimateSmartFee(4, &answerFound, mpool) == feeEst.estimateFee(4) && answerFound == 4);
             BOOST_CHECK(feeEst.estimateSmartFee(8, &answerFound, mpool) == feeEst.estimateFee(8) && answerFound == 8);
         }
@@ -113,6 +112,10 @@ BOOST_AUTO_TEST_CASE(BlockPolicyEstimates)
             BOOST_CHECK(origFeeEst[i-1] == CFeeRate(0).GetFeePerK());
         }
     }
+    // Fill out rest of the original estimates
+    for (int i = 10; i <= 48; i++) {
+        origFeeEst.push_back(feeEst.estimateFee(i).GetFeePerK());
+    }
 
     // Mine 50 more blocks with no transactions happening, estimates shouldn't change
     // We haven't decayed the moving average enough so we still have enough data points in every bucket